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Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
56
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
56 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,152
413
Normalized
1,152
413
Prepared
56
413
Aligned
56
56
Invalid removed
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
55
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
55 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
357
A: 0 / B: 357
Series A
CTRA
Stock · 1,152 raw → 56 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0609
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0033
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-ctra_monthly_5y