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Correlation
of % moves
+36%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
55
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+11% → +58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
55 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,152
412
Normalized
1,152
412
Prepared
56
412
Aligned
55
55
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
55
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
358
A: 1 / B: 357
Series A
CTRA
Stock · 1,152 raw → 56 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0589
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0033
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-ctra_monthly_5y