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Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
54
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CTRA moves ~10 months before Personal Savings Rate
Watch CTRA for an early read on Personal Savings Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
54 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,152
807
Normalized
1,152
807
Prepared
56
807
Aligned
54
54
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
54
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Personal Savings Rate shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does CTRA today line up with Personal Savings Rate 10 months from now?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
755
A: 2 / B: 753
Series A
CTRA
Stock · 1,152 raw → 56 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7278
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0067
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-psavert_stock-ctra_monthly_5y