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Correlation
of % moves
-16%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-06
1,141
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-16%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-22% → -10%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,141 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,152
7,868
Normalized
1,152
7,868
Prepared
1,152
7,868
Aligned
1,141
1,141
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,141
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-16%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,140 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-16%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
140 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,738
A: 11 / B: 6727
Series A
CTRA
Stock · 1,152 raw → 1,152 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 7,868 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
63
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0621
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_stock-ctra_daily_5y