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Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
54
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CTRA moves ~17 months before US CPI
Watch CTRA for an early read on US CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+11% → +59%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
54 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,152
951
Normalized
1,152
951
Prepared
56
951
Aligned
54
54
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
54
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does CTRA today line up with US CPI 17 months from now?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+32%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+21%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
899
A: 2 / B: 897
Series A
CTRA
Stock · 1,152 raw → 56 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0176
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-ctra_monthly_5y