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Correlation
of values
+83%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
283
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~69% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+83%
Based on values
95% CI
+79% → +86%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
283 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,237
474
Normalized
1,237
474
Prepared
285
474
Aligned
283
283
Invalid removed
R²(i)
69%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
283
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+88%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 18 months from now?"
265 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
85 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
101 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
193
A: 2 / B: 191
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,237 raw → 285 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 474 raw → 474 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
121.2904
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-walcl_monthly_5y