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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
471
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
471 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
472
Normalized
941
472
Prepared
941
472
Aligned
471
471
Invalid removed
10%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
471
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
471 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+36%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
55 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
471
A: 470 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-14.1106
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
233.4241
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-unrate_monthly_5y