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Correlation
of values
+96%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
470
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~92% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
+95% → +97%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
470 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
999
470
Normalized
999
470
Prepared
999
470
Aligned
470
470
Invalid removed
R²(i)
92.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
470
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
470 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
164 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
71 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
529
A: 529 / B: 0
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 999 raw → 999 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
24.9555
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y