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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
472
5,881
Normalized
472
5,881
Prepared
472
283
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
88 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
195
A: 192 / B: 3
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0037
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2099
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y