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Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
118
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~85% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+89% → +95%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
118 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
470
2,515
Normalized
470
2,515
Prepared
470
121
Aligned
118
118
Invalid removed
R²(i)
85.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
118
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
118 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
355
A: 352 / B: 3
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
22.4080
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1848.3582
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-sp500_monthly_5y