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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
98
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~42% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index moves ~18 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Case-Shiller Home Price Index for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
+51% → +75%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
98 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,079
473
Normalized
2,079
473
Prepared
100
473
Aligned
98
98
Invalid removed
R²(i)
42%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+88%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 18 months ago?"
80 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
377
A: 2 / B: 375
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,079 raw → 100 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 473 raw → 473 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
16.1066
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
231.1476
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-sofr_monthly_5y