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Correlation
of values
+55%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
176
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~18 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on values
95% CI
+44% → +64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
176 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,258
471
Normalized
3,258
471
Prepared
179
471
Aligned
176
176
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
176
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+66%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 18 months from now?"
134 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+51%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-23%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
298
A: 3 / B: 295
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 179 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 471 raw → 471 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0533
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
205.2246
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-rrpontsyd_monthly_5y