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Correlation
of values
+96%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
232
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~92% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
233
472
Normalized
233
472
Prepared
233
472
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
92%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
116 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
241
A: 1 / B: 240
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0348
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-251.6850
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y