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Correlation
of values
+69%
In sync
of periods
66%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 66% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~47% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~14 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+69%
Based on values
95% CI
+53% → +80%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
473
1,832
Normalized
473
1,832
Prepared
473
62
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
47%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
+92%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Case-Shiller Home Price Index today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 14 months ago?"
45 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
417
A: 414 / B: 3
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 473 raw → 473 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,832 raw → 62 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0693
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-17.8844
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-iorb_monthly_5y