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Correlation
of values
+71%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
57
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~50% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~14 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+71%
Based on values
95% CI
+55% → +82%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
57 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
471
1,777
Normalized
471
1,777
Prepared
471
60
Aligned
57
57
Invalid removed
R²(i)
50.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
+94%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Case-Shiller Home Price Index today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 14 months ago?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
32 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
417
A: 414 / B: 3
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 471 raw → 471 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,777 raw → 60 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0736
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-19.1484
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-iorb_monthly_5y