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Correlation
of values
-63%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
12
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~40% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on values
95% CI
-88% → -9%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
471
13
Normalized
471
13
Prepared
471
13
Aligned
12
12
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
39.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
460
A: 459 / B: 1
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 471 raw → 471 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-28279.2843
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13375310.6467
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-exhoslusm495s_monthly_5y