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Correlation
of values
+19%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
314
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~14 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+19%
Based on values
95% CI
+8% → +30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
314 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
470
6,606
Normalized
470
6,606
Prepared
470
317
Aligned
314
314
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
314
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
+32%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Case-Shiller Home Price Index today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 14 months ago?"
300 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+53%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
139 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
159
A: 156 / B: 3
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1494.7652
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-188366.5514
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-dexvzus_monthly_5y