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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
474
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~93% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
+96% → +97%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
474 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
474
13,097
Normalized
474
13,097
Prepared
474
644
Aligned
474
474
Invalid removed
R²(i)
93%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
474
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
474 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
170
A: 0 / B: 170
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 474 raw → 474 prepared
Series B
USD/LKR Exchange Rate
DEXSLUS
FRED · 13,097 raw → 644 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0533
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-41.4561
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-dexslus_monthly_5y