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Correlation
of values
+82%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
392
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+82%
Based on values
95% CI
+79% → +85%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
392 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
474
8,230
Normalized
474
8,230
Prepared
474
395
Aligned
392
392
Invalid removed
R²(i)
68%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
392
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+82%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
392 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-24%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
72 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
85
A: 82 / B: 3
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 474 raw → 474 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,230 raw → 395 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0541
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.0215
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-dexmxus_monthly_5y