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Correlation
of values
+20%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
470
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on values
95% CI
+11% → +28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
470 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
470
13,879
Normalized
470
13,879
Prepared
470
665
Aligned
470
470
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
470
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
470 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
195
A: 0 / B: 195
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0493
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
108.5310
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-dexjpus_monthly_5y