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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
474
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~42% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
+59% → +70%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
474 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
474
10,236
Normalized
474
10,236
Prepared
474
489
Aligned
474
474
Invalid removed
R²(i)
42%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
474
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+65%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
474 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+56%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
15
A: 0 / B: 15
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 474 raw → 474 prepared
Series B
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,236 raw → 489 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2533
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.2123
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_fred-dcoilwtico_monthly_5y