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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
12
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
274
798
Normalized
274
798
Prepared
14
798
Aligned
12
12
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
10
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-65%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
788
A: 2 / B: 786
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 274 raw → 14 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4489
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1656
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-crcl_monthly_5y