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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+55%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
14
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-0% → +84%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
315
415
Normalized
315
415
Prepared
16
415
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
30%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+55%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
403
A: 2 / B: 401
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 315 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 415 raw → 415 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0124
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0055
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-crcl_monthly_5y