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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-58%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
15
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-85% → -8%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
316
536
Normalized
316
536
Prepared
16
536
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-82%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
522
A: 1 / B: 521
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 316 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 536 raw → 536 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2066
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-crcl_monthly_5y