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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-63%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
13
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-63%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
274
534
Normalized
274
534
Prepared
14
534
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
40%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-82%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
522
A: 1 / B: 521
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 274 raw → 14 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 534 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2224
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0120
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-crcl_monthly_5y