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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
+50%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
14
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~25% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CRCL moves ~3 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch CRCL for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+50%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-7% → +82%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
316
1,363
Normalized
316
1,363
Prepared
16
1,363
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-59%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) today line up with PPI: All Commodities 3 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,351
A: 2 / B: 1349
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 316 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,363 raw → 1,363 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0252
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0085
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-crcl_monthly_5y