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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
-46%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
14
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~21% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~2 months before CRCL
Watch Building Permits for an early read on CRCL.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-46%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-81% → +12%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
316
799
Normalized
316
799
Prepared
16
799
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
21%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
-71%
+25% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) today line up with Building Permits 2 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
-71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-94%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
787
A: 2 / B: 785
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 316 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0054
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-permit_stock-crcl_monthly_5y