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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Core PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
+35%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
14
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Core PCE Price Index moves ~2 months before CRCL
Watch Core PCE Price Index for an early read on CRCL.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-25% → +75%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
315
811
Normalized
315
811
Prepared
16
811
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Core PCE Price Index shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) today line up with Core PCE Price Index 2 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+66%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
799
A: 2 / B: 797
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 315 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0028
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_stock-crcl_monthly_5y