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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
+63%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
14
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+63%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+13% → +88%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
315
811
Normalized
315
811
Prepared
16
811
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+48%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
799
A: 2 / B: 797
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 315 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0043
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0032
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-pcepi_stock-crcl_monthly_5y