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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+41%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
13
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
274
1,050
Normalized
274
1,050
Prepared
14
1,050
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,038
A: 1 / B: 1037
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 274 raw → 14 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-crcl_monthly_5y