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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+30%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
13
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CRCL moves ~1 month before Fed Funds Rate
Watch CRCL for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
274
864
Normalized
274
864
Prepared
14
864
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
+43%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 1 month from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
852
A: 1 / B: 851
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 274 raw → 14 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0209
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0135
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-crcl_monthly_5y