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Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) vs Sticky Price CPI
Correlation
of % moves
+45%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
14
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CRCL moves ~3 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch CRCL for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
69%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+45%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-14% → +80%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
317
703
Normalized
317
703
Prepared
16
703
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
20%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) today line up with Sticky Price CPI 3 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+59%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
691
A: 2 / B: 689
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
CRCL
Stock · 317 raw → 16 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 703 raw → 703 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0675
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0102
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_stock-crcl_monthly_5y