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Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CQP moves ~5 months before Median Home Price
Watch CQP for an early read on Median Home Price.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-11% → +72%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
253
Normalized
1,255
253
Prepared
61
253
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+61%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Median Home Price shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does CQP today line up with Median Home Price 5 months from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
276
A: 42 / B: 234
Series A
CQP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Median Home Price
MSPUS
FRED · 253 raw → 253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0840
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mspus_stock-cqp_monthly_5y