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Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~83% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before US Core CPI
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on US Core CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
+89% → +93%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
1,225
Normalized
831
1,225
Prepared
831
283
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
83.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+97%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 18 months ago?"
256 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
117 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
101 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
554
A: 551 / B: 3
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
60038.0907
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-10852356.2775
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-walcl_monthly_5y