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Correlation
of values
+42%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
499
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on values
95% CI
+35% → +49%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
499 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
835
15,232
Normalized
835
15,232
Prepared
835
501
Aligned
499
499
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
499
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
499 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
338
A: 336 / B: 2
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 835 raw → 835 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,232 raw → 501 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5344
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.1736
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y