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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
88%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
807
These move in the same direction about 88% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~94% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
88.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
+96% → +97%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
808
Normalized
831
808
Prepared
831
808
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
93.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
807 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+70%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
25
A: 24 / B: 1
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
62.1186
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2977.7470
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-pce_monthly_5y