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Correlation
of values
-57%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
419
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~32% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before US Core CPI
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on US Core CPI.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-57%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -50%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
419 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
834
1,827
Normalized
834
1,827
Prepared
834
421
Aligned
419
419
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
32%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
419
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-72%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
392 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
58 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
417
A: 415 / B: 2
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 834 raw → 834 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,827 raw → 421 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0198
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.6616
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-mortgage15us_monthly_5y