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Correlation
of values
+79%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
304
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~62% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Job Openings moves ~18 months before US Core CPI
Watch Job Openings for an early read on US Core CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+79%
Based on values
95% CI
+74% → +83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
304 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
305
Normalized
831
305
Prepared
831
305
Aligned
304
304
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
62.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
304
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+87%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with Job Openings 18 months ago?"
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
95 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
528
A: 527 / B: 1
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
44.0672
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5164.8453
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y