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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
771
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Core CPI moves ~18 months before 5Y Treasury Yield
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on 5Y Treasury Yield.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -54%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
771 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
16,092
Normalized
831
16,092
Prepared
831
774
Aligned
771
771
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
771
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Treasury Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with 5Y Treasury Yield 18 months from now?"
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
63
A: 60 / B: 3
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,092 raw → 774 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0212
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.7060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-dgs5_monthly_5y