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Correlation
of values
-54%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
663
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-54%
Based on values
95% CI
-59% → -48%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
13,869
Normalized
831
13,869
Prepared
831
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
28.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-34%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+11%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
170
A: 168 / B: 2
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0015
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.9881
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-dexusnz_monthly_5y