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Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
483
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~70% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before US Core CPI
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on US Core CPI.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -81%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
483 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
10,143
Normalized
831
10,143
Prepared
831
486
Aligned
483
483
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
69.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
483
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
459 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+21%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
351
A: 348 / B: 3
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,143 raw → 486 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0300
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.1589
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-dbaa_monthly_5y