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Correlation
of values
+93%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
831
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~87% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +94%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
831 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
831
880
Normalized
831
880
Prepared
831
880
Aligned
831
831
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
87.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
831
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
831 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-90%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
49
A: 0 / B: 49
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5689
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
22.9238
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-cusr0000seta02_monthly_5y