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Correlation
of values
+96%
In sync
of periods
72%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
473
These move in the same direction about 72% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~92% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
72%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
+95% → +97%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
473 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
834
474
Normalized
834
474
Prepared
834
474
Aligned
473
473
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
92%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
473
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
473 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+52%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
362
A: 361 / B: 1
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 834 raw → 834 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 474 raw → 474 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2881
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-116.8204
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y