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Correlation
of values
-81%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
531
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~66% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before US CPI
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on US CPI.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-81%
Based on values
95% CI
-84% → -78%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
531 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
951
533
Normalized
951
533
Prepared
951
533
Aligned
531
531
Invalid removed
R²(i)
66.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
531
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-87%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 18 months ago?"
507 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-2%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
422
A: 420 / B: 2
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0240
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.0262
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y