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Correlation
of values
+98%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
231
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~96% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on values
95% CI
+97% → +98%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
951
232
Normalized
951
232
Prepared
951
232
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
R²(i)
95.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
231
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
231 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
149 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
72 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
721
A: 720 / B: 1
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
49.6103
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
728.9711
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y