Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-46%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
663
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~21% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-46%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -40%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
951
2,891
Normalized
951
2,891
Prepared
951
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
21.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
290
A: 288 / B: 2
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
29.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0060
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0030
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_fred-nfci_monthly_5y