Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
771
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US CPI moves ~18 months before 5Y Treasury Yield
Watch US CPI for an early read on 5Y Treasury Yield.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -54%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
771 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
951
16,092
Normalized
951
16,092
Prepared
951
774
Aligned
771
771
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
771
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-64%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Treasury Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with 5Y Treasury Yield 18 months from now?"
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+55%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+24%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
183
A: 180 / B: 3
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,092 raw → 774 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0215
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.6677
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_fred-dgs5_monthly_5y