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Correlation
of values
-83%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
486
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Baa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before US CPI
Watch Baa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on US CPI.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -79%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
486 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
954
10,205
Normalized
954
10,205
Prepared
954
489
Aligned
486
486
Invalid removed
R²(i)
68%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
486
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Baa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with Baa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
459 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-64%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
471
A: 468 / B: 3
Series A
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 954 raw → 954 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,205 raw → 489 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0288
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12.7528
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_fred-dbaa_monthly_5y