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Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+47%
In sync
of periods
75%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
26
These move in the same direction about 75% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CPAY moves ~15 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch CPAY for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
75.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+9% → +73%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
26 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
556
672
Normalized
556
672
Prepared
28
672
Aligned
26
26
Invalid removed
R²(i)
21.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
26
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
+61%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 15 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
648
A: 2 / B: 646
Series A
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)
CPAY
Stock · 556 raw → 28 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 672 raw → 672 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4697
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0191
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-cpay_monthly_5y