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Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
114
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-45% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
114 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
556
1,692
Normalized
556
1,692
Prepared
116
1,692
Aligned
114
114
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
114
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
113 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-38%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,580
A: 2 / B: 1578
Series A
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)
CPAY
Stock · 556 raw → 116 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 1,692 prepared
Sign agreement
1.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3090
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0171
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-cpay_weekly_5y