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Correlation
of values
+57%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
281
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~17 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on values
95% CI
+48% → +64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,225
700
Normalized
1,225
700
Prepared
283
700
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
32.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+68%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with Sticky Price CPI 17 months from now?"
264 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
111 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
421
A: 2 / B: 419
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6691
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-walcl_monthly_5y