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Correlation
of values
+57%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
282
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~17 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
282 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,229
701
Normalized
1,229
701
Prepared
284
701
Aligned
282
282
Invalid removed
32%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
282
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+68%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with Sticky Price CPI 17 months from now?"
265 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+32%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
114 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
421
A: 2 / B: 419
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 284 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6696
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-walcl_monthly_5y