Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-44%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
604
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Sticky Price CPI moves ~18 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
604 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
700
605
Normalized
700
605
Prepared
700
605
Aligned
604
604
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
604
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 18 months from now?"
586 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
97
A: 96 / B: 1
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 605 raw → 605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3752
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16.7113
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y