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Correlation
of values
+36%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~10 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,881
701
Normalized
5,881
701
Prepared
283
701
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
13%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+60%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with Sticky Price CPI 10 months from now?"
271 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
422
A: 2 / B: 420
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7165
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2356
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y